PICTURE the good news: a third industrial revolution, powered by decentralised energy and massive digital connectivity. Picture the bad news: the residual institutions of the second industrial revolution, powered by oil and 20th-century transportation habits, threatening to hold this third revolution back, perhaps even kill it.
These were two future scenarios debated by industry leaders at an IHT conference in Barcelona recently. Solar, with its soaring global sales and plunging prices, featured as a talisman for the third industrial revolution. Fracked gas featured as a standard-bearer for extending the life of the second industrial revolution. As the founder of a fast-growing solar company, set up because of my concerns about dependency on oil, gas and coal, I took part in the debate keen to maximise the good news and find ways around the bad news.
Last week, the good news had a major setback. The US Department of Commerce confirmed punitive tariffs on Chinese manufacturers of cheap solar cells and panels. The premise of the case, brought by US manufacturers, is that Chinese manufacturers have been exporting their panels - cheaper than US equivalents because of Chinese government largesse - at unfair prices. The Europeans are contemplating the same anti-Chinese action. The Chinese seem set to retaliate with punitive tariffs on exports of US-made polysilicon, the raw material for solar cells. A full-scale solar trade war is likely.
Meanwhile, oil and gas-industry lobbying in multiple countries is succeeding in stalling many of the feed-in tariff subsidies that have been driving the growth of solar and other renewable industries. Many policymakers concerned about climate change talk of gas as a bridge to the low carbon future.
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